Umar Nurmagomedov Predicts Petr Yan Will Beat Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333
Umar Nurmagomedov predicts Petr Yan will beat Merab Dvalishvili when they finish their trilogy at UFC 333, and he already sees the next round of bantamweight matchmaking taking shape. The No. 3 contender believes a Yan win would push the champion toward Sean O’Malley, while opening a rematch between Nurmagomedov and the man who handed him his only loss.
Nurmagomedov laid out that scenario in a UFC interview as Yan prepares for his first title defense of this reign. He did not treat the Oct. 24 co-main event in Abu Dhabi as a coin flip.
“I’m expecting Petr gonna beat him again, and maybe they will try to do rematch with me and Merab.”
That is more than a pick. It is Nurmagomedov’s read on how the UFC might split the top of the 135-pound division after the rubber match.
Yan (20-5) took the belt back from Dvalishvili (21-5) by unanimous decision at UFC 323 in December. The win avenged a one-sided loss in their first meeting in March 2023 and made Yan a two-time champion.
The third fight is now official for UFC 333 on Oct. 24 at Etihad Arena. Dvalishvili, ranked No. 1, is trying to become champion again after a 2025 title run that included a decision win over Nurmagomedov at UFC 311.
That January 2025 loss remains the only blemish on Nurmagomedov’s record. He broke his hand in the fight, and Dvalishvili rallied after falling behind on the scorecards to keep the belt by unanimous decision.
Nurmagomedov has won twice since then, beating Mario Bautista and former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Those results have him at 20-1 heading into a ranked main event of his own this weekend.
He said the UFC 333 result would decide his next assignment. If Yan wins, Nurmagomedov believes the UFC should give former champion O’Malley the next title shot and expects that rematch to get booked.
O’Malley (20-3, 1 NC) is ranked No. 2 and already owns a victory over Yan from UFC 280. He has also said publicly that a second meeting with Yan would be the biggest fight available at bantamweight.
If Dvalishvili wins the trilogy, Nurmagomedov said he thinks he would be next for the title. He added that he wants to keep fighting either way, even if the bout after Shanghai is not for the championship.
His prediction is rooted in the second Yan-Dvalishvili fight, not in wishful matchmaking. Speaking to Red Corner MMA, he argued that Yan’s health, especially his right hand, changed the matchup from the first meeting.
“My bet is that Petr will get it done again,” Nurmagomedov said. “He was healthy. A lot of things depend on your health. He was able to punch with his right hand. That’s what I saw. In their first fight he couldn’t do that as his shoulder was injured. In the second fight, he could use both of his hands, and it was a completely different story.”
He also downplayed Dvalishvili’s ability to hold Yan down for long stretches. In his view, the wrestling may produce takedowns, but not the kind of control Aljamain Sterling once used against Yan.
“I can see that if they are both healthy in the next fight, based on their skillsets, Petr has good boxing, Merab has wrestling, but he can’t control opponents on the ground the way Aljamain Sterling did,” Nurmagomedov said. “Merab just can’t because he doesn’t have that level of grappling. So, he might take him down, but Petr will get up. That’s why I don’t see a different outcome.”
That remains his opinion. Dvalishvili is still one of the hardest 135-pounders to fight over five rounds, and a better camp could make the third meeting look different from December.
None of the October picture matters if Nurmagomedov stumbles first. He headlines UFC Fight Night in Shanghai on Saturday against Song Yadong (23-9-1) at the Oriental Sports Center.
Song, ranked No. 6, is coming off a submission win over Figueiredo. A victory there would keep Nurmagomedov in position to chase Dvalishvili, whether that fight is for the belt or a high-stakes rematch without it.
The next checkpoint after Shanghai is UFC 333. If Nurmagomedov is right about Yan, the champion would be steered toward O’Malley, and the Dagestani contender would finally get the fight he has been asking for since UFC 311.